Tuesday, 10 June 2008

Thw Birthday Paradox And Risk Evaluation for Your Business (1)

Random take any pair of people and the likelihood of them having exactly the same birthday sit on (1 / 365)? 0.0027, or approximately 0.27%. The hypothesis that seems so low that many would be ignored and that never took place.

The Birthday Paradox but available means mathematics to show that "unlikely" occurs much more often than general conviction. How many people do not have to have more than 50% chance of a couple, sharing the same birthday?
23

Explanation, please, keep in mind this example ignores leap years.
1) With 23 people to 253 pairs exist.
23 * 22 / 2 = 253
(Look at Permutations if you do not understand this)

2) Now, instead find the chance of two people with the same birthday, we find the likelihood of them have different birthdays.
1-1/365? 0.9973 or 99.73%, or 364/365 in fraction

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